Dr. Afzal: Virus surge can be identified even if testing remains as so

As the Maldives was expecting a surge in the number of virus cases, National Emergency Operations Center medical officer Dr. Ibrahim Afzal has stated that authorities will be able to identify that surge even with the limits on the testing capacity of the country. 

Experts in the Maldives have projected a surge in the number of cases by the end of this month. Cases could increase by almost 

Speaking in a presser tonight, Dr. Afzal stated that the expected surge will be smaller than previously projected. He admitted that the testing capacity of the country was still low, however, this would not stand in the way of the authorities’ ability to identify the surge. The number of people consulting with Flu Clinics and cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Infections or SARI cases would also increase, said Dr. Afzal. 

“If a true surge occurs, we can definitely identify it through surrogate indicators. Meaning if we cannot identify through surveillance tests, the number of consultations at Flu Clinics would rise. Other than this, SARI cases, the ones being admitted will increase,”

“So even if the testing capacity remains at its current level, we can capture a surge if it occurs.” Said Dr. Afzal when a journalist questioned whether a surge can be identified with the low testing capacity of the country.

He added that a surge of the expected level is yet to occur in the country as he was referring to previous cases.

The biggest step that can be taken to reduce the surge was the measures of lockdown which he stated that citizens would be accustomed to as it keeps on increasing. Dr. Afzal said that the lives of citizens should also be shaped around social distancing, cleanliness, and the prevention of the virus.

“Maybe due to these reasons we are not seeing a surge. Our hope is that even if s surge comes, that it will be a low surge.” Said Dr. Afzal.

The Maldives identified a record number of cases on April 30, after 15 days since the capital city was placed in lockdown following the identification of the first case. 191 cases of the virus were identified on that day alone. The second-highest number of cases was identified on May 8, which saw 98 cases. After this, case numbers have averaged around 25-50.

In a previous press conference last Thursday, NEOC consultant Dr. Sheena Moosa had stated that current statistics projected the first surge of virus cases to be identified in the Maldives on May 31. 

Dr. Sheena stated that projections have shown that the Maldives may suffer 77,305 cases of COVID-19 in total.

The number of people that could be hospitalized due to the virus was around 13,568, according to the projections. 5805 individuals may also have to be placed in intensive care, said Dr. Sheena. On the peak day, Authorities will be able to identify 390 cases, while 1562 cases may occur in reality, says Dr. Sheena.