World Bank warns climate change threatens Maldives fisheries, tourism

The World Bank warns Maldives face severe risks due to climate change, especially to the country’s fisheries and tourism sectors.

The Maldives Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) publicized on Tuesday, finds significant threats to the country’s natural capital, especially to its marine ecosystems and warns of the impacts on coral reefs and fisheries.

While these effects are already visible, World Bank in its report, said they will worsen by mid-century under both high and moderate emission scenarios. “This degradation could have devastating effects on the Maldives’ economy and environment,” the report read.

The World Bank report outlined critical pathways for climate adaptation, including necessary fiscal reforms to safeguard the vulnerable sectors and ensure overall economic stability.

The World Bank CCDR projects nearly all coral cover among reefs could disappear if global temperatures rise above 2 degrees Celsius, and emphasized the urgent requirement for both global emission reductions and stronger local conservation efforts.

The report further assesses impacts of sea-level rise, projecting an increase of up to 0.9 meters by 2100.

“Without effective adaptation strategies, coastal flooding could severely damage up to 3.3 percent of the Maldives’ total assets by 2050 during typical 10-year floods,” and projected damages of USD 0.7 to USD 1.1 billion of GDP.

Furthermore, World Bank emphasized the high public spending on infrastructure that has pushed public debt to 123 percent of GDP in 2023, adding that it raises concerns about Maldives’ debt sustainability – a recurring fiscal theme for the island nation for some time.

The bank in its report added this financial strain complicated the country’s ability to fund critical climate and strategic investments, “making fiscal reforms and external financing essential for building resilience.”

“Maldives is at a critical juncture where the impacts of climate change and ongoing economic challenges converge,” said David Sislen, World Bank Country Director for Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka.

“The Maldives Country Climate Development Report outlines a pathway for the country to not only safeguard its natural assets, but also to build a more resilient and sustainable economy. The World stands ready to support the Maldives on its journey to green and climate resilient growth.”

More than 90 percent of the reports the bank surveyed have reported of beach erosion, and 60 percent have suffered infrastructure damage – impacts linked to both island development practices and climate change, the bank added.

It also said fisheries could see shrink in the number of fish catch, declining from nearly 17 to 100 percent by the end of the century.

“Unlocking the full potential of private climate finance is crucial to address the climate crisis, and build resilient, sustainable economies,” said Imad Fakhoury, IFC’s Regional Director for South Asia.

“As a country that stands prominently on the frontline of climate-driven crises, the Maldives can accelerate its journey towards climate resilience and green growth by leveraging private sector investment through sustainable, innovative financial instruments and strategic partnerships.”

The World Bank’s CCDR on Maldives identified six key objectives offering policy recommendations, which are:

• Build fiscal and external buffers to ensure macroeconomic stability and finance climate action
• Mobilize climate finance through new and existing channels
• Enhance the climate resilience of islands and infrastructure
• Enhance the climate resilience of ecosystems
• Enhance the climate resilience of livelihoods, particularly in fisheries and tourism
• Unlock the development benefits from green transitions in key sectors such as energy, mobility, and waste

The report also underscores adaptation to rising sea levels and related flooding alone will requirement investments of USD 2 to 4 billion.

“Mobilizing the necessary financing for climate action in the Maldives requires a concerted effort from all stakeholders, including the international community,” said Hiroshi Matano, MIGA Executive Vice President.

Matano added that the World Bank Group Guarantee platform focuses on enhancing climate resilience and fostering sustainable development by facilitating investments.