India’s economy expands 0.4% in Oct.-Dec., ending recession

NEW DELHI (AP) — India’s economy expanded by a weaker-than-expected 0.4% in the October-December quarter, which still allowed it to escape recession following large contractions in the two previous quarters during the coronavirus pandemic, the government said Friday.

The National Statistical Office projected an 8% contraction for the 2020-21 financial year, which ends in March. In January, it had projected a contraction of 7.7% for the fiscal year, following 4% growth in 2019-20.

It said fertilizer production rose by 2.7% in January, steel by 2.6% and electricity generation by 5.1%. Coal production declined by 1.8%, crude oil by 4.8% and natural gas by 2%, it said in a statement.

India’s economy contracted by 7.5% in the July-September quarter following a record plunge of 23.9% in the previous three months. The government had imposed a strict two-month lockdown across the country in March after the outbreak of the pandemic.

A country enters a technical recession if its economy contracts in two successive quarters. India’s recovery is expected to improve with a rise in consumer demand and investment.

India’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India, is projecting gross domestic product growth of 10.5% in financial year 2021-22. The International Monetary Fund has projected 11.5% growth in calendar 2021.

The IMF estimated that the Indian economy contracted 8% in 2020.